Investment firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its USD 150,000 price target for Bitcoin in 2026, describing the recent market decline as the “weakest bear case” in the cryptocurrency’s history.
A research note published on Monday says that Bitcoin’s roughly 46% drop from its all-time high in October 2025 reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to the asset.
Analysts: no systemic failure
In the note, led by managing director Gautam Chhugani and digital-asset analyst Mahika Sapra, Bernstein distinguished the current correction from earlier crypto winters caused by infrastructure collapses or cascading bankruptcies.
“Nothing has blown up and no hidden secrets will be revealed,” the analysts wrote. “When everything is going right, the Bitcoin community creates a self-imposed crisis of confidence.” Bitcoin hit a record above USD 126,000 in early October 2025 but then entered a downtrend that briefly pushed it below USD 61,000 on 6 February. It has since recovered and is trading around USD 70,000.
Bernstein stressed that current market conditions are fundamentally different from the 2022 crypto winter, when the collapses of FTX, Terra-Luna and lending platforms such as Celsius caused systemic failures across the industry. In the 2022 crash, Bitcoin fell more than 73% from its peak, bottoming near USD 15,500.
Institutional infrastructure remains intact
The analysts cited several factors supporting their bullish outlook: a pro-Bitcoin US president, active spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate balance-sheet adoption led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and the continued participation of major asset managers.
The firm also acknowledged headwinds. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about USD 6 billion of outflows over the past four months — the longest stretch of withdrawals since the funds launched in January 2024. JPMorgan analysts have also noted that the phase of rapid institutional adoption “appears to have reached its natural end”. On Bitcoin’s underperformance against gold during recent periods of macroeconomic stress, Bernstein argued that it still trades mainly as a “liquidity-sensitive risk asset” rather than a mature safe haven.
The firm expects Bitcoin ETF infrastructure to benefit as financial conditions ease.
The road ahead remains uncertain
The USD 150,000 target implies about 119% upside from current levels. Bernstein believes any shift by the Federal Reserve towards looser monetary policy later in 2026 could act as a catalyst for moving towards that target.
Strategy still holds more than 712,000 Bitcoin at an average purchase price of about USD 76,307 per coin. Bernstein noted that large corporate Bitcoin holders have structured their debt to withstand prolonged downturns. According to Strategy’s executives, only an extreme scenario — Bitcoin falling to USD 8,000 and staying there for five years — would require a balance-sheet restructuring.
“This cycle is clearly different from the past,” Bernstein concluded, pointing to the convergence of regulatory acceptance, institutional participation and corporate adoption that was absent in previous bear markets.
