On 15 December 2025, a wave of bearish warnings came from leading crypto market analysts, with Bitcoin trading around USD 86,000 — more than 30% below its October all-time high.
Views of leading analysts
Peter Brandt (veteran trader): said Bitcoin’s parabolic growth structure has broken, and in the past such breaks have led to corrections of more than 80%. If the pattern repeats, the price could fall from the USD 126,000 peak to around USD 25,000.
Luke Gromen (macro analyst): despite a positive long-term view of Bitcoin, sees the short-term outlook as negative and has a USD 40,000 target into 2026. His reasons:
- Bitcoin’s failure to make a new high relative to gold
- A break of key moving averages
- Growing concern about quantum computing risks
Ali Martinez (technical analyst): sees USD 86,000 as critical support. If it breaks, a deeper correction to USD 70,000 is possible. A “bear flag” pattern and the price’s failure to clear intermediate resistance at USD 90,000 are signs of market weakness.
The most bearish scenario
Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence): raised the possibility of an 88% fall to around USD 10,000 in 2026. He describes current conditions as a “post-inflation era entering a recessionary phase” and sees similarities with the period before the 2008 financial crisis.
Macroeconomic pressures
- An expected Bank of Japan rate hike on 19 December (98% probability of a 0.25-point increase)
- After previous Japanese rate hikes, Bitcoin fell 20–30%
- About USD 200 million of long positions were liquidated on 15 December
- Bitcoin ETF outflows reached USD 3.79 billion in November (the largest since launch)
